CME Scoreboard

Prediction for CME (2015-10-22T03:12:00-CME-001)

Product: 3-Day Forecast
Issued: 2015 Oct 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Oct 23-Oct 25 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Oct 23-Oct 25 2015

            Oct 23     Oct 24     Oct 25
00-03UT        2          2          5 (G1)
03-06UT        1          1          4     
06-09UT        1          1          4     
09-12UT        1          1          4     
12-15UT        1          1          3     
15-18UT        1          1          3     
18-21UT        2          4          3     
21-00UT        2          5 (G1)     3     

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on days two and
three (24-25 Oct) due to possible impact from the 22 Oct CME.

Product: Forecast Discussion
Issued: 2015 Oct 23 0030 UTC
Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction
Center

Solar Activity

.24 hr Summary...
Solar activity was at low levels today due to a long duration C4 flare
at 22/0340 UTC from Region 2434 (S10W48, Cao/beta).  It appeared that
the flare occurred concurrently with a filament eruption near the
region. An associated coronal mass ejection (CME) was first observed in
SOHO/LASCO C2 imagery beginning at 22/0312 UTC with the majority of the
ejecta off the SW limb.  Slight growth was observed in Region 2434.

Slight decay was observed in the trailing spots of Region 2436 (N08E04,
Eki/beta-gamma).  New Regions 2438 (S18W25, Bxo/beta) and 2439 (N17E76,
Hax/alpha) were numbered during the period.

.Forecast...
Solar activity is expected to be low with a chance for M-class (R1-R2,
Minor-Moderate) flares over the next three days (23-25 Oct).

Energetic Particle

.24 hr Summary...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was at normal to moderate levels
with a peak flux of 806 pfu at 22/1600 UTC.  A slight enhancement of the
greater than 10 MeV proton flux at geosynchronous orbit occurred after
22/1530 UTC likely associated with the long duration C4 flare described
above.

.Forecast...
The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is expected to be at normal to
moderate levels throughout the forecast period (23-25 Oct).  There is a
slight chance for the greater than 10 MeV protons to reach the S1
(Minor) solar radiation storm threshold on day one (23 Oct).  Near
background levels are expected on days two and three (24-25 Oct).

Solar Wind

.24 hr Summary...
Solar wind parameters were near nominal levels over the period with
solar wind speeds between 364 km/s and 474 km/s.  Total field ranged
from 1 nT to 7 nT with the Bz component between +7 nT and -3 nT.  Phi
angle was oriented in a mostly negative (towards) sector.

.Forecast...
Solar wind parameters are expected to near nominal levels on days one
and through the majority of day two (23-24 Oct).  By late on day two to
early on day three (25 Oct), solar wind parameters are likely to become
enhanced by a glancing blow from the 22 Oct CME.  WSA-Enlil modelling of
the CME suggests a glancing blow possible early on 25 October.  However,
a rise in lower energy protons in the ACE/EPAM instrument suggests the
possibility of a slightly more Earth-directed component than what was
seen in model output.

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